torsdag 4 juni 2015

JP Morgans NFP outlook

US jobs preview – the St isn’t modeling big shifts (adds ~225K vs. 223K in Apr w/an unchanged UR at 5.4%
and wages +0.2% M/M). Keep in mind that jobs don’t need to get any better to validate liftoff at the Sept meeting (i.e. adds in the ~175-245K range would more than justify Sept and anything stronger would increase the odds of June or Jul). There isn’t really a set of numbers for Fri that would be especially “good” or “bad” for stocks. “Inline” would simply reinforce the current (tentative) status quo of Sept liftoff (but not definitively). Very strong figures (i.e. ~300K adds and/or wages up 0.4%+) would cause liftoff assumptions to move forward from Sept (although the bar for June is very, very high at this point given recent Fed rhetoric) while softer results (i.e. `150K or lower) would only add to growth fears (and keep in mind that investors are no longer impressed by the few extra months of ZIRP that will accompany sluggish growth). Bottom Line: in all likelihood the jobs report on Fri won’t be a major market mover. The adds figure would have to deviate enormously from St ests (i.e. <150K or >300K) to dramatically alter the policy/growth narrative. Once this jobs report gets out of the way the next big related events will be Yellen’s press conf. June 17 and the June jobs reports Jul 2.  

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